Key events
Fast Pace
This series will be marked by young, athletic teams that furiously push the ball and seek out as many possessions as possible. It’s this pace that Indiana used to confuse and unsettle New York again and again. Their running was relentless, and their ability to score in transition, chucking long passes for easy layups after Knicks made baskets was stunning. It’s a style that works very well for Indy. The problem is that OKC can actually play just as fast, and execute just as well. They have averaged 101 possessions per game these playoffs. Indy? 98. T
his is a real issue for Indy head coach Rick Carlisle because a key Indy strength is easily matched by Oklahoma. And this is why it’s so hard to imagine Indiana winning this series, and this is why Indy are +1200 to win the series in seven games. Also, don’t forget, no four seed has ever won an NBA title.
Again, I have to mention, Rick Carlisle coached Dallas to what is probably the second biggest NBA Finals upset of the 21st century, with Cleveland topping the charts by overcoming a 3-1 series deficit v the 73 win Warriors.
So I actually think Indy can figure out some crazy scheme to keep them in these basketball games. Personally, I can’t see Indy being completely blown away.
Adam Silver
The NBA’s commissioner is giving his pre-Finals presser. He mentioned the league in Africa the league helped set up in order to develop the game and talent, which is a work in progress but is a clear location for growth. “Five years from now over 40% of the youth in the world will live in Africa,” said Silver.
Silver also spoke of the possibility of starting a European league that would “serve their fans better”. I am not sure what that means, the set up for European basketball is pretty good – are the NBA going to try and upend that decades old system? We’ll have to wait and see.
Silver has also admitted that he’s stood up on the podium with what he thought was a fix for the All-Star Game before, but that those fixes have not worked out. This year, the game will be in the afternoon, after and before NBC’s Olympic coverage, which could help ratings, at least in theory, but won’t help any of the players care or play defense. I think I’ll pass.
A question has been asked about shrinking the schedule, which is something critics of the NBA have been talking about for years. Silver says that of course, less revenue from fewer games would be an obstacle. He also says there’s no real evidence that injuries would be impacted, and that more games gives fans more opportunity to see something in person that they want to see. In short, he’s not really interested in a smaller schedule.
Hola!
Howdy folks and welcome to our live rolling overage of the NBA Finals. That’s right, the season that began way back in November has reached its conclusion: the Oklahoma City Thunder v the Indiana Pacers. Both teams are seeking their first legitimate NBA crown. OKC actually has one franchise title they won while located in Seattle, which does count officially but really, hell no! And the Pacers won three straight ABA titles, which count but, eh.
So this is a very big deal, and biggest for Oklahoma as they’re not only chasing a title but looking to embed themselves in a core group of the best NBA teams of all time. With 68 regular season wins, we’re talking serious company here: the 1995-1996-1997 Bulls 72 then 69 wins, the 1971-1972 Lakers, 69 wins. It’s the big time. What they do not want is to wind up like the Golden State Warriors that won a record 73 games and then lost the 2015-2016 NBA Finals to LeBron’s gang.
I wrote in the Guardian’s NBA playoff preview that most of the pressure was on the wide Canadian shoulders of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the now reigning MVP. Anything short of a title would fall on him – he’s the leader – and would be catastrophic. For a franchise, when you’re supposed to win, and you don’t, there’s no greater setback. So let’s be clear here – OKC is meant to win. Their guard play combined with their furious, multi-pronged, deep defensive lineups pose a myriad of issues for their opponents, as do their wings.
The Thunder are as complete a team as you can get, this postseason, bulled their way through Memphis and Minnesota, and won in seven games v Denver. How did the Nuggets pull that off? In a word, Jokic. And that’s about it.
Indy do not have a Jokic, and so they’re deep dogs. Don’t take it from me, take it from their All-NBA point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who admits as much. How do they beat Oklahoma? That’s a question for Rick Carlisle, who engineered an upset finals win for the 2011 Mavericks over the Miami Heat, and who engineered a Eastern Conference Finals win over the favored Knicks just a few days ago. If anyone can figure this out, it’s Rick. Against New York, he employed a scrambling, unpredictable offense that had the Knicks off balance all series. Against Oklahoma Indy will need to go absolutely crazy from three-point-land, and try to get to the line as much as they can, which is something Haliburton just doesn’t do.
It’s an uphill battle for sure, but if Indiana are going to steal one on the road, Game 1 is a good place to start. OKC haven’t played since 29 May, so in theory, they should be a bit rusty. Honestly though, I’ll believe it when I see it.
So, can Indiana figure out OKC and strut to a shock-the-world upset? If so a win in Game 1 would be super helpful, and you can read all about it here. We will have tip-off at 830 ET, 130 UK. We’ll have more to come – stick with us!
David will be here shortly. In the meantime here’s a look at our predictions for the NBA finals:
Thunder in five. They’ve been utterly dominant all season. That’s mostly been the case for the playoffs too, allowing for some Jokić magic in the second round. The Pacers have been a ton of fun to watch, have impressive depth and a rising star in Haliburton. But the Thunder are deeper, more talented and have the best player in the series – that’s a recipe for a gentleman’s sweep. Ryan Baldi
Thunder in five. If the Pacers had drawn literally any other Western Conference foe, I would give them a better chance in this series. But unfortunately for Indiana, they drew, in my estimation, the far better version of themselves. Indiana is great at forcing turnovers: Oklahoma City do that better. Indiana take great care of the ball: OKC even moreso. The Thunder have the MVP, the better defense, the better bench. They have been the best team in the league at home this season, and they have home-court advantage in this series. While the Pacers’ run to the finals has been impressive all the way, and I see them winning a game, I think the Thunder will make relatively quick work of them en route to a Larry O’Brien. Claire De Lune
Pacers in seven. I picked the Thunder at the start of the playoffs (flex) and my inner Dean Oliver is still inclined to think their historically good metrics will see them through. But management wants someone to make the case for Indiana so here we go. The Pacers’ blistering pace, surgical ball movement and deep rotation give them a real shot at disrupting Oklahoma City’s rhythm. Haliburton’s vision fuels an attractive, crowd-pleasing offense that doesn’t rely on isolation or volume threes. If they can turn it into a track meet while taking care of the ball like they have all year, Indiana’s chaos could outlast OKC’s control. Bryan Graham
Thunder in six. Again: they’re loaded, high-energy, extremely well-coached and hungry as hell. Denver needed the world’s best player to take OKC to seven games. While the Pacers have their virtues, and a bona fide go-to guy in Halliburton, they don’t have enough to stop a team that seems like it has been on an inexorable march toward a championship since the season tipped off in October. For me, the question isn’t if Thunder will win, but whether GM Sam Presti can keep this squad together long enough to make a dynastic run for the ages. Andrew Lawrence
