Last year, the NFC West was thrown for a loop.
The San Francisco 49ers, expected by many to be a Super Bowl contender, instead were dealt a rash of injuries and slumped to a last-place finish in the division. The Los Angeles Rams went into their Week 6 bye with a 1-4 record, then reeled off nine wins in their final 12 games to win the division. The Seattle Seahawks started 3-0, lost three straight to drop back to .500, went into their bye at 4-5, then won six of eight down the stretch to finish 10-7 and narrowly miss the playoffs. And the Arizona Cardinals started 2-4, then won four in a row to leapfrog into first place in the division — only to stumble down the stretch and finish 8-9.
Heading into 2025, this looks like one of the stronger — and more closely-contested — divisions in the NFL. Each of the four teams has an over/under of at least 7.5 wins, while none of them has an over/under higher than 10.5 wins.
And because it is expected to be such a competitive division, we wanted to take the time to game out the possible scenarios where each team could potentially walk away at the end of the season as the NFC West champion. You’ll find those scenarios in the space below.
All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Arizona Cardinals
Over 8.5 (-110) / Under 8.5 (-110)
Kyler Murray has his best season and the defensive additions hit in a major way.
Murray has been chugging along for several years now as an above-average quarterback but has never quite broken through and had that top-five/top-10 type of season. With Marvin Harrison Jr. in Year 2, Trey McBride looking like one of the league’s best tight ends and ancillary weapons like Michael Wilson and the running backs, maybe Arizona can take that significant step forward many expected last year, but a year late. The Cards tied for 10th in EPA per play last year, via Tru Media, largely on the strength of a highly efficient run game. If the passing attack can push into the top-10 as well, then maybe there’s a new ceiling to be hit here.
Arizona took some major swings on the defensive side of the ball, drafting Walter Nolen and Will Johnson in the first two rounds, Jordan Burch, Cody Simon and Denzel Burke in the next few, and signing Josh Sweat, Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson and Akeem Davis-Gaither in free agency. We know head coach Jonathan Gannon can coax a top-flight defense out of really talented players, but the Cardinals haven’t really had the talent for that since he arrived in Arizona. That’s why they spent basically all of their resources this offseason upgrading on that side of the ball.
If everything works out as planned, maybe the Cards are this year’s surprise top-10 defense.
Los Angeles Rams
Over 9.5 (-145) / Under 9.5 (+125)
They seamlessly integrate Davante Adams and the young defense takes a significantly leap.
Adams coming over to replace the departed Cooper Kupp should, in theory, make the Rams’ offense even more versatile. Adams brings more inside-outside flexibility than does Kupp, who is more of a slot-only option. Being able to deploy Adams and Puka Nacua all over the formation will make the Rams more difficult to defend, and we’ve seen what happens with this offense whenever Matthew Stafford is healthy and has a pair of top-flight weapons. It’s wheels up, all the time.
The defense, though, checked in just 27th in EPA per play last season, via Tru Media. Some of that is unsurprising given that the Rams last Aaron Donald, were integrating a new defensive coordinator (Chris Shula) and had so many young players being counted on to play major roles.
Some of those young guys, however, look like they can be really good players. Between Jared Verse, Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner, there’s a lot to work with up front. Each of Byron Young, Omar Speights, Kamren Kinchens and Quentin Lake has flashed at times. All seven of those guys, still on their rookie contracts, are expected to be starters. The Rams also used several Day 3 picks on front seven players and brought in Poona Ford to play on the nose. If all of that can congeal into an average-or-better defense, then the Rams are cooking with gas and can be even better than they were last year.
Most underrated NFL players at every position: Put some respect on these names ahead of the 2025 season
Jared Dubin
San Francisco 49ers
Over 10.5 (-105) / Under 10.5 (-115)
The offensive stars get healthy and the defensive makeover works like gangbusters.
The Niners were absolutely demolished by injury issues last season. Christian McCaffrey basically never got started. Deebo Samuel never got fully healthy. Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL. Ricky Pearsall got shot and had to miss extended time. George Kittle missed some games. Trent Williams was out down the stretch. It was a lot to deal with, and the offense looked nothing like the one the team expected to put on the field throughout the season.
McCaffrey and Williams are older, but they should be coming into this season healthy. Samuel is gone and Aiyuk is still rehabbing from the knee injury, but Pearsall should have a healthy offseason, Kittle is healthy at Tight End University and Jauan Jennings is now more established as a high-level receiving option. We know that there are few better coaches at scheming things up than Kyle Shanahan, and Brock Purdy proved last year that he can find some degree of success even when the environment around him is not as perfect as it was through his first two seasons. If they can keep the stars on the field, the Niners should get back to being a top five-ish offense.
The defense is where they need to make a more significant shift, but luckily, there are reinforcements in town. Robert Saleh is back to run the unit after spending a few years as head coach of the Jets. New York’s offense unsurprisingly stunk during his time at the helm, but the defenses were consistently very good. He knows how to get the best out of his players. And there are a whole lot of new players out of whom he needs to get the best, what with Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward, Talanoa Hufanga and more moving on in free agency and guys like Mykel Williams, Alfred Collins, Nick Martin, Upton Stout, CJ West (all of whom are rookies) and more coming in to replace them.
Seattle Seahawks
Over 7.5 (-140) / Under 7.5 (+115)
The defensive improvement from the second half of last season holds, Klint Kubiak remakes the offense in his image and Sam Darnold plays like he did for the first 16 games of last season.
Seattle checked in 18th in EPA per play defensively prior to its Week 10 bye, according to Tru Media, but came back and ranked fifth from Weeks 11 through 18. Adding Demarcus Lawrence up front and second-round pick Nick Emmanwori on the back end should help account for losses like those of Dre’Mont Jones and Rayshawn Jenkins, the latter of whom played a smaller role down the stretch anyway.
Kubiak’s Saints offense lit the world on fire in the first two weeks of last season, racking up 91 points against the Panthers and Cowboys. Things fell apart from there as the team crumbled under the weight of injuries both up front and to the skill-position corps. But the Shanahan tree has been very successful at developing play-callers, and it’s clear that Kubiak had some idea of how to structure the offense in a way that could make things easier.
The key will be getting the offensive line to hold up in front of Darnold, because he’s very susceptible to pressure, as we saw in the Vikings‘ final two games of last season. If the Seahawks are able to give him time, he will be able to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball to the likes of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp (on whom the Seahawks are counting to stave off age-related decline), second-round pick Elijah Arroyo and more. Seattle also needs to get some kind of efficient run game going, because things were kind of a mess the last two years under Ryan Grubb.
