UFC 316 predictions — Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, expert picks

Two UFC championships are on the line this Saturday when UFC 316 lands in Newark, New Jersey’s Prudential Center. In the main event, Sean O’Malley will attempt to regain the bantamweight championship from the man who took it from him in September, Merab Dvalishvili.

Dvalishvili’s relentless pace and seemingly endless gas tank allowed him to overwhelm O’Malley for the majority of their UFC 306 meeting, which Dvalishvili won by unanimous decision. O’Malley has claimed that he has made several lifestyle changes in taking a more serious approach to his career, but Dvalishvili’s unique style still presents significant challenges for the former champ.

In the co-main event, two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo Kayla Harrison will challenge for the first UFC title of her career. Harrison will challenge women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Pena.

Pena is on her second run with the title, having defeated the greatest women’s mixed martial artist of all time, Amanda Nunes, to win the title in December 2021 before losing the rematch. Pena then defeated Raquel Pennington in October to win the title Nunes vacated in retirement.

Adding some extra intrigue to Pena vs. Harrison is the looming return of Nunes, who has said she will end her retirement to face the winner.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 316 fight card, odds

• Merab Dvalishvili (c) -300 vs. Sean O’Malley +240, bantamweight title
• Kayla Harrison -600 vs. Julianna Pena (c) +425, women’s bantamweight title
• Joe Pyfer -400 vs. Kelvin Gastelum +310, middleweights
• Patchy Mix -170 vs. Mario Bautista +140, bantamweights
• Kevin Holland -280 vs. Vicente Luque +230, welterweights
• Joshua Van -550 vs. Bruno Silva +400, flyweights
• Azamat Murzakanov -550 vs. Brendson Ribeiro +400, light heavyweights
• Serghei Spivac -140 vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta +120, heavyweights
• Wang Cong -550 vs. Ariane da Silva +400, women’s flyweights
• Yoo Joo-sang -500 vs. Jeka Saragih +380, featherweights
• Quillan Salkilld -440 vs. Yanal Ashmouz +340, lightweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 316 picks, predictions

Dvalishvili (c) vs. O’Malley	Dvalishvili	O’Malley	Dvlashvili	Dvalishvili	Dvalishvili
Pena (c) vs. Harrison	Harrison	Harrison	Harrison	Harrison	Harrison
Pyfer vs. Gastelum	Pyfer	Pyfer	Pyfer	Pyfer	Pyfer
Mix vs. Bautista	Mix	Mix	Mix	Mix	Mix
Holland vs. Luque	Holland	Holland	Holland	Holland	Holland

Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley

Campbell: Despite the much-publicized changes that a now-healthy O’Malley has made in his personal life in order to leave no stone unturned ahead of this title rematch, Dvalishvili remains a very difficult style challenge for “Suga.” Not only does the combination of Dvalishvili’s insane cardio and the constant threat of the takedown aid the champion in keeping opponents out of rhythm, Dvalishvili’s striking defense remains criminally underrated. Not only is Dvalishvili responsible defensively behind his high guard, he darts in and out so fluidly that the onus will remain on O’Malley to take chances in order to chase him down. Dvalishvili is in the midst of a growingly historic run atop the 135-pound division and has plenty of momentum on his side. The champion also proved in his first title defense against unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov that he can persevere despite his own pre-existing injuries. Merab is simply built different.

Brookhouse: I know the smart money is on Dvalishvili. His cardio and the pace he pushes are valuable assets and proved to be too much for O’Malley the first time around. I do, however, think that O’Malley is a very smart fighter and he seems to have taken the right lessons from the first fight. O’Malley and his team should have been working on ways to stay on his feet, off the cage and in position to use his striking. I believe O’Malley has the tools to get the finish if he gets rolling. Plus, what fun is a group of predictions if we all agree on every fight.

Pena vs. Harrison

Campbell: The overwhelming betting odds in favor of Harrison appear justified in this case. Pena owns a recognizable name and status as a two-time champion yet her gaping lack of elite wins remains an issue. The champion is tough as nails but doesn’t have the requisite skills to prevent a power wrestler like Harrison from doing what she does best. Yes, Harrison will need to prove she can make 135 pounds for the third time and that comes with heavy physical demands. But few fighters are as driven as Harrison in a fight which could lead to Amanda Nunes coming out of retirement for a superfight against her former teammate. 

Mahjouri: Pena will have a terrible night if Harrison gets her hands on her. Two-time Olympic champion Harrison is one of the fiercest grapplers women’s MMA has ever seen. Pena’s 23% takedown defense is atrocious, and she’s been submitted twice. Amanda Nunes took her down six times in their last fight. Not only is Pena’s grappling defense shoddy, but she also lacks the striking power or finesse to disincentivize Harrison. The champ’s only avenue to winning is by exhausting Harrison. It’s a real possibility considering Harrison’s admittedly treacherous weight cuts. Harrison has fought five rounds twice, splitting wins with Larissa Pacecho, but those were up two weight classes. Still, that’s not enough to make me side against Harrison, who probably submits Pena.

Mix vs. Bautista

Brookhouse: Bautista can absolutely win this fight, and if he does, it won’t be pretty. When Bautista is most effective, he’s shutting down opponents with an ugly, grinding style. Mix is the more dynamic fighter of the two, and that should serve him well to avoid getting put against the cage and held in position. Mix should be able to announce his arrival to the UFC with a competitive decision victory that sees him be too active for Bautista to shut down.

Mahjouri: You never quite know how well a Bellator star will do in the UFC, but Mix has top-five potential. Bautista, currently ranked No. 10 by the promotion, is a suitable first test, even on short notice. Mix is arguably the best bantamweight submission on the planet. That bodes well against Bautista, who was taken down by three of his last four opponents. I anticipate a tough and potentially anticlimactic fight, one where Mix gets his hand raised.