Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz is one of the most dynamic young talents in baseball, evidenced by the 432-foot homer he hit late last month that had a 122.9 mph exit velocity. It was the hardest-hit baseball in the MLB Statcast era and there are plenty of other underlying metrics to indicate that he’s a constant power threat. In fact, he leads the MLB in average exit velocity (97.5 mph), barrel rate (24.6%), hard-hit contact rate (61.1%) and bat speed (78.7 mph). However, you can still find Cruz as high as +440 in the latest MLB home run odds for a Tuesday night matchup with the Marlins, which has an over/under of 8, and he’s one of the best values available in our Tuesday MLB HR parlay.
You can also use the latest FanDuel promo code to get $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins, padding your bankroll to enjoy making MLB home runs bets. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks and betting strategy.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 29.35 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 63 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, June 10:
Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+440)
Cruz hit 21 home runs last season and has already launched 12 home runs in 2025, but the aforementioned underlying metrics would seem to suggest he’s a sleeping HR giant. The swing-and-miss in his game is the only thing holding him back at this point and he’s in a bit of a lull, but he should have a chance to bounce back on Tuesday in ideal conditions at home.
“After a huge power surge to begin the season, Cruz hasn’t homered over his last 9 games, but with think he’s due and like the matchup against a struggling Sandy Alcantara,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Cruz is 1-3 with a HR against Alcantara in his career, and we would set the line for him to homer at +315 here.” FanDuel has the best odds here and you can extract even more value with the FanDuel Dinger Tuesday promotion.
Brandon Lowe, Rays (+420)
He’s hit at least 20 home runs in each of his last three full seasons and he topped out at 39 homers during an epic season in 2021. He’s back on the 30-homer path in 2025 with 13 home runs over his first 61 games and he very clearly sees the ball well against a hitter-friendly backdrop in Boston.
“Lowe has been incredibly successful in his career at Fenway. In 22 career games at Fenway, Lowe is hitting .382 with 6 HRs. Lowe has 19 career HRs against Boston in just 58 starts against them,” Fetner said. The model sets Lowe’s line to hit a HR at +340 today but BetMGM is offering considerably more juice, and you can add some first-bet insurance with the latest BetMGM promo code.
Wyatt Langford, Rangers (+420)
Langford was labeled as the most MLB-ready bat in the 2023 MLB Draft after an incredible career at Florida and the Rangers fast-tracked him to the big leagues, as he made the Opening Day roster in 2024. He hit 16 homers while acclimating as a rookie and has already hit 11 home runs in 2025, though his .245/.319/.418 career slash line leaves plenty of room for improvement. He’s shown plenty of signs of future stardom and he’ll draw a plus matchup on Tuesday.
“Simeon Woods-Richardson has given up at least one HR in each of his last five starts and is allowing nearly two HRs per nine innings,” Fetner noted. “Langford has been scuffling at the plate a bit, but the model likes this matchup for him, as he has been better on the road than at home this season.” It’s FanDuel offering the best odds again here and the model would set Langford’s MLB HR odds at +380.
Where to bet MLB props on Tuesday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Tuesday:
More MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 148-77 roll (+2065) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is also 36-33 (+1067) over his last 69 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in picks for Tuesday.
