FIFA Club World Cup Power Rankings: Man City leapfrog PSG for top spot; Inter Miami last of surviving 16

The field is trimmed in half at the Club World Cup and for all the wobbles along the way, the knockout stage looks about how you would have expected it to before a ball had been kicked.

Sure Atletico Madrid went crashing out, but Group B always looked the most morbid, the one where the presence of two European super teams opened the door for a serious upset. There were other surprising results along the way, think Chelsea’s loss to Flamengo or Benfica downing Bayern Munich, but by the end of the group stage only three UEFA representatives had departed and the five other wealthiest clubs were through. Joining them is the team with Lionel Messi and one who can afford to pay big bucks for Spanish veterans.

This isn’t shaping up to be a tournament for the underdogs then. But who of the big beasts left in the field is favorite to win it all? Here are the remaining 16 teams, ranked by how we view their chances of winning the Club World Cup. That’s a point worth reaffirming before Flamengo fans start hectoring me. Better teams might get worse draws, much worse in the case of teams like Inter Miami. Anyway, let’s go:

1. Manchester City (+1)

The only team with a 100% record in the group stages, Manchester City have swiftly blooded their new signings and are managing Rodri’s minutes shrewdly such that he might be back to his best in time for the new Premier League season. “It has been a long, long time since we had a performance like this on and off the ball,” said Pep Guardiola after City’s 5-2 win over Juventus. 

“The players were committed and we are happy to beat a top side. “This is just one game, but I think the players felt again what it was like to be a good team.” He’s not wrong. With a favorable draw too, this looks like the team to beat.

2. Paris Saint-Germain (-1)

There is only a cigarette paper between one and two here, perhaps the difference being nothing more than the vibe that PSG gave off in their defeat to Botafogo. This was a team who looked like they’d summited their mountain when they won the Champions League, who can’t quite bring themselves to worry that much about losing games at the Club World Cup now they have achieved what none of their predecessors did.

3. Real Madrid (–)

Evidently more of a work in progress than at least one of the teams above them, Xabi Alonso’s side also have not had a particularly serious test in the competition so far. The way in which they brushed past Salzburg bodes well, however, and the evidence of the last round of fixtures is that Juventus shouldn’t unduly challenge them, the start of a favorable path to the semifinals. The question is whether their system and strongest XI, even if only for the remainder of the tournament. will be established by the time that begins.

4. Chelsea (+2)

Enzo Maresca’s side have not been particularly good throughout this competition and deserved to be brushed aside by Flamengo. What they have been, however, is lucky, particularly in that Andreas Schjelderup’s goal to deliver Benfica top spot over Bayern Munich. That means Chelsea have landed in an altogether more favorable quadrant of the draw even if both Benfica and the winner of Palmeiras vs. Botafogo could give them an almighty test. They should be favorites for a semifinal spot and from there who knows.

5. Bayern Munich (-1)

Anyone who ended the European season feeling at least a little skeptical about Bayern’s qualities won’t have been disabused of that notion by the Club World Cup, where they’ve beaten up on the one team they should have won heavily against and made heavy work of opposition only a few rungs below them quality wise. Perhaps their drop to second place is nothing more than the consequences of a few big chances missed, but there is a real risk that if such profligacy they will be punished by Flamengo.

6. Inter (-1)

The scrap between Inter and River at the final whistle in Seattle spoke to a competitive needle often lacking at the Club World Cup; you can sense that this competition offers absolution for a club bruised by their near misses in Serie A and the Champions League. It is of course possible that all those high stakes games will catch up with Cristian Chivu’s side as this competition wears on, not least given the heavy weather they made of topping Group E.

7. Borussia Dortmund (–)

The draw gods have been smiling on Dortmund, afforded a manageable tie against Monterrey as their reward for not messing up a very favorable Group F. Is the end result of all this fortune the same that it was in the 2024 Champions League, a brushing aside by Real Madrid no matter how well BVB play? Probably.

8. Benfica (+1)

One of many teams in this competition who are just very hard to assess off the back of three games. At the time that they had to fight back for a 2-2 draw with Boca Juniors it looked like an underwhelming result. Now that we know how tough South American opponents are (especially Brazilian it must be noted), does that result look more impressive? Did Benfica just ride their luck against Bayern Munich? Maybe, but if they get past Chelsea their credentials might need to be taken more seriously.

9. Fluminense (+7)

In our pre-tournament power rankings we said that Fluminense seemed to lack the attacking spark of the other Brazilians. What we failed to appreciate was how strong their defense might be, the 1.7 expected goals (xG) allowed by them bettered only by Bayern Munich. It is fair to say the draw has been kind on them and it might be again given they have a tired looking Inter ahead of them. Their tie could be another primed for upset watch.

10. Palmeiras (+1)

Considering we expected such great things from Palmeiras coming into this competition, it is hard to shake the sense that they are the member of the Brazilian quartet that has impressed the least. Still they are undefeated and have probably just been a little unfortunate in front of goal. If Willian Estevao and Vitor Roque click, this might be the team to come through what we’re terming “Chelsea’s quadrant of favorability”.

11. Botafogo (+13)

Having delivered the result of the tournament in their win over PSG, Botafogo held their nerve against Atletico Madrid. Needing to keep the margin of defeat below three goals is a more complicated task than it might seem and so Fogo leant heavily on goalkeeper John Victor and their defense, all of whom have impressed this competition. A robust defense is a strong recipe for tournament success though averaging more than two xG against per game is not. Then again it might be some time yet before Botafogo face another team as good as the ones they met in the group stage. (Not counting the Seattle Sounders, obviously)

12. Juventus (-2)

Talk about coming back down to earth with a thud. Perhaps the scale of their 5-2 loss to Manchester City, off the back of swashbuckling wins over Al-Ain and Wydad Casablanca, is mitigated by the six changes made by Igor Tudor, who was loath to assess his players too harshly given they had already qualified. Still, their inability to secure a draw means it’s Real Madrid in the last 16. That’s probably the end of the road.

13. Flamengo (–)

This feels cruelly low. Flamengo might have been the best of the Brazilian teams in this competition. Jorginho has been brilliant in midfield, Gonzalo Plata was a thrilling breakout star of their win over Chelsea. The only problem is that that win sent them careening into the wrong side of the bracket, their route to the final likely to be Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid. Claiming one more shock doesn’t seem beyond Filipe Luis. It’s hard to see three though. 

14. Monterrey (+8)

Former Guardiola assistant Domenec Torrent has made an immediate impact in the Monterrey dugout, unbeaten in three games where his side proved to be obdurate in the extreme against more talented opponents Inter and River Plate. From there on it was a case of doing the job and doing so in style against Urawa Red Diamonds, a 4-0 win meaning that they did not have to worry about results in the other game.

15. Al-Hilal (–)

The Kobe Bryant speech Al-Hilal posted on social media after the 2-0 win speaks to the mindset of the Saudi giants going into the knockout stages. “Job’s not finished.” The signing of Theo Hernandez is another attempt to furnish Simone Inzaghi with as much talent as they can find and the draw with Real Madrid offers hope. Still, their meeting with Manchester City, replete as it is with geopolitical symbolism, is probably not going to go their way. 

16. Inter Miami (+2)

Inter Miami might have the greatest the game has ever seen on their side, but they’re not getting past Paris Saint-Germain, probably Bayern Munich, maybe Real Madrid and then perhaps Manchester City. No siree.