Expert picks, best bets: Can Hill end his losing streak at UFC Fight Night?

The UFC travels to Baku, Azerbaijan, on Saturday for a Fight Night at which light heavyweights Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree Jr. clash in the main event (3 p.m. on ABC/ESPN+; prelims at noon on ESPN/ESPN+).

Hill, a former champion and ESPN’s No. 5-ranked light heavyweight, enters the fight having lost via knockout in his last two Octagon appearances. Rountree, ranked just behind Hill, lost to Alex Pereira in a challenge for the championship this past October.

Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC fighters Din Thomas and Anthony Smith to get their main event predictions. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on intriguing bets in Baku.

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Light heavyweight: Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree

Jamahal Hill lives and breathes on X factors. I’ve spent a lot of time with Hill, and he is really unique. If I had to choose between who I’d rather spar — Hill or Rountree — it would be Rountree because he’s familiar. Everything Khalil does looks like it’s supposed to. It’s technically perfect. But in a way, that’s easier to deal with because when it looks so perfect, at least it’s predictable. Jamahal has really good eyes and, even though he’s not the more technically sound striker, I think he’s more difficult to deal with. — Anthony Smith

Hill has had such bad luck the last couple of years with injuries and layoffs. He needs a fight like this to turn his luck around, and I think Rountree outperformed himself in his last fight. He gave the absolute best possible version of himself against Pereira, and I think his performance this time will be a touch less convincing, and Hill will catch Rountree. — Din Thomas

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of June 19. Visit ESPN BET for the most up-to-date UFC Fight Night odds and PFL semifinals odds.

Parker: Rountree to win (-110). Despite losing in his first shot at a UFC championship, Rountree made a statement. He looked great through two rounds, giving the champ all he could handle until Rountree got tired in Round 3 then knocked out in Round 4. His ability to hang with Pereira so long proved Rountree belongs near the top of the division. Hill has lost back-to-back fights by knockout, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens for a third time here. Hill is a skilled striker, but Rountree a better one and he is faster and carries more power. Unless Hill can threaten Rountree with grappling, expect another KO/TKO loss here.

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Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card

Lightweight: Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Bahamondes to win (-130). Bahamondes enters this matchup with Fiziev having won each of his last three bouts by first-round finish. Fiziev is a great striker, but I believe Bahamondes can match him on the feet. Look for Bahamondes to use lateral movement and distance striking to get the win here. He also has a submission game if the opportunity were to present itself.

Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Blaydes to win (-250). Kuniev, who’s won twice on “Dana White’s Contender Series,” is getting a massive step up in competition for his UFC Debut. Although Kuniev is good on the mat, Blaydes has fought the best in the UFC for nearly seven years. Unless Kuniev catches Blaydes early in the fight, expect Blaydes to withstand an early onslaught and use his dominant wrestling to get the win.

Lightweight: Tofiq Musayev vs. Myktybek Orolbai

Over 1.5 rounds. This matchup has fight of the night potential. Orolbai showed his durability in his last fight, overcoming early adversity and nearly getting a win against Mateusz Rębecki. Considering each of his three UFC bouts has gone over 1.5 rounds, I expect the same here. Look for Orolbai to use his wrestling to take away Musayev’s striking prowess and run the clock en route to a decision or late submission win.