Trading helps Wall Street’s banks offset tepid takeover activity

Good morning and welcome back to FirstFT. Here’s what’s on today’s agenda:

• Lutnick hails Trump’s $5mn investor visa

• US president exits G7 summit early

• How the culture wars are remaking advertising

• FT writers and critics choose their favourite reads of the year so far

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Wall Street executives are counting on their traders to offset tepid deal fees this quarter, after Donald Trump’s trade war threats made markets gyrate.

What is the evidence? Senior bankers say the market swings prompted by the US president’s “liberation day” declaration of higher tariffs led to a flurry of buying and selling by investors, even as corporate boardrooms put deals on ice. “Trading continues to be helped by volatility, with equity trading likely to continue to outperform fixed-income trading,” said Mike Mayo, a banking industry analyst at Wells Fargo.

What about other business lines? The continued surge in equity trading is expected to be partly offset by slower growth in revenue from desks that trade fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities. Wall Street banks are also braced for a drop in fees from advising companies on mergers and acquisitions, share and debt sales, and IPOs, due to a reluctance to launch big deals without more clarity on US trade policy. Read the full story.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• G7 summit: World leaders will conclude talks in Canada without Trump, who left early to manage the US response to the Israel-Iran conflict. The FT blog has live updates here.

• Economic data: The US commerce department’s Census Bureau reports retail sales for May. Meanwhile, the labor department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reports import and export prices for last month.

• Interest rates: Chile‘s central bank is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5%.

The FT Women in Business Summit 2025 takes place today. You can register here and watch it live here.

Five more top stories

1. Iran has told other countries in the Middle East that it will only agree to negotiate an end to the war with Israel and resume talks over its nuclear programme if Israeli forces halt their bombing campaign against the Islamic republic, according to diplomats. One diplomat in the region said Tehran’s message in discussions with neighbouring Gulf states was “very clear”. Here’s the latest on the diplomatic efforts to end the war.

2. Senate Republicans released a long-awaited version of Donald Trump’s flagship tax bill yesterday, setting up a possible clash with House Republicans over the so-called “big, beautiful bill”. Here’s more on the draft bill, including keeping the “Salt” tax deductions at the current level of $10,000.

3. The EU has refused to hold a flagship economic meeting with Beijing ahead of a summit next month because of a lack of progress on numerous trade disputes, people familiar with the matter said. The bloc’s stonewalling of the talks underlines the deep divisions between the sides despite Beijing’s efforts to court Europe.

4. Nearly 70,000 people have signed up for the new golden Trump Card, a visa scheme led by commerce secretary Howard Lutnick that will grant the “world’s best and brightest” legal residency in the US at a cost of $5mn. The commerce secretary said the Trump Card will appeal to business leaders and companies seeking legal residency in the US for themselves or their employees. Here’s how the scheme works.

5. Central banks expect to keep buying more gold this year, and anticipate their holdings of US dollars will fall over the next five years, according to a survey of global monetary authorities. Gold prices have surged 30 per cent since January and doubled in the past two years, as global uncertainty and market volatility have propelled investor demand for bullion.

The Big Read

After years of corporate messaging that highlighted purpose and inclusion, the advertising industry is shrinking away from making socially progressive statements as the movement intensifies against diversity, equity and inclusion. Daniel Thomas reports from the annual Cannes Lions advertising festival on how the culture war is remaking the sector.

We’re also reading and listening to . . .

Chart of the day

Oil markets have shrugged off Israel’s threat to topple the Iranian regime, with crude exports from the Middle East so far unaffected by the escalating conflict. About 21mn barrels of oil from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates pass daily through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical waterway separating the Islamic republic from the Gulf states. About one-third of the world’s seaborne oil supplies pass through it and Iran has historically threatened to block it in times of conflict.

Take a break from the news

From politics, economics and history to art, food and, of course, fiction — FT writers and critics choose their favourite reads of the year so far.