2025 NBA Finals odds, Game 3 predictions: Pacers vs. Thunder picks, best bets from expert on 165-91 run

The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to regain home-court advantage when they battle the Indiana Pacers in Game 3 of their 2025 NBA Finals matchup on Wednesday. Oklahoma City evened the series at 1-1 with a 123-107 win on Sunday. The Thunder (68-14), who are looking for their first NBA championship since winning it in 1979 when they were based in Seattle, are 4-3 on the road this postseason. The Pacers (50-32), who won an ABA title in 1973 for their last championship, are 5-2 on their home court during the 2025 playoffs.

Tipoff from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Oklahoma City has won three of four meetings this season. The Thunder are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Pacers vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 227.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Pacers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is SportsLine’s No. 1 expert and is on a huge 165-91 roll on his NBA picks that have returned more than 33 units. 

Now, Severance has analyzed Thunder vs. Pacers and just revealed his coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Pacers. New users can utilize a DraftKings promo code, a FanDuel promo code or a BetMGM promo code to get started. 

Why the Thunder can cover

Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been dominant in the 2025 NBA playoffs. The regular-season NBA MVP has scored 34 or more points in each of the last four games, including a 34-point, eight-assist, five-rebound and four-steal performance in Game 2 on Sunday. He poured in 38 points with five rebounds, three assists and three steals in the series opener. In 18 postseason starts this year, he is averaging 30.4 points, 6.8 assists, 5.6 rebounds and 1.8 steals in 36.7 minutes.

The Thunder is also led by forward Jalen Williams. He scored 19 points, grabbed five rebounds and dished off five assists on Sunday. He has reached double-digit scoring in 17 of 18 playoff games, including eight in a row. In 18 postseason games, all starts, he is averaging 20.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.6 steals in 34.6 minutes. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Pacers can cover

Forward Pascal Siakam continues to power the Indiana offense. In 18 playoff starts, he is averaging 20.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 33.4 minutes of action. In Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks, he poured in 31 points, while adding five rebounds, three assists, three blocks and one steal. He registered a double-double in the 111-110 Game 1 win over the Thunder, scoring 19 points, while grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing off three assists.

Point guard Tyrese Haliburton is coming off a 17-point, six-assist, three-rebound, two-block and two-steal effort in the Game 2 loss to Oklahoma City. He registered a double-double in the Game 1 win, including the game-winning shot, scoring 14 points, while adding 10 rebounds and six assists. He had 21 points, 13 assists, six rebounds and three steals in the Game 6 win over the Knicks. In 18 playoff starts, he is averaging 18.4 points, 9.3 assists, 5.8 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 35.3 minutes. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Pacers vs. Thunder picks

Now, Severance has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Pacers vs. Thunder. He is leaning Over the total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. You should see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.

So who wins Thunder vs. Pacers Game 3, and what X-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the expert who is up 33 units on his NBA picks, and find out.