The 2025 Firekeepers Casino 400 will take place on Sunday at Michigan International Speedway, where several of the biggest names in the NASCAR Cup Series are still searching for their first win of the season. Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski are all former champions, but none of the three has managed to record a victory in 2025. Elliott is +2000 in the 2025 NASCAR at Michigan odds, while Busch is +3500 and Keselowski is +2500. Kyle Larson is the +525 favorite in the 2025 Firekeepers Casino 400 odds ahead of Sunday’s 2 p.m. ET start and is second in the NASCAR standings with three wins under his belt this season. Before entering any 2025 Firekeepers Casino 400 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Michigan predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray and was also high on Byron as a +2000 longshot at Daytona. Then it predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout and Christopher Bell’s +600 triumph in the NASCAR All-Star Race. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.
It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races last season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns. New users also have the opportunity to take advantage of the latest Bet365 promo code, DraftKings promo code and Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Now, the model simulated the Firekeepers Casino 400 2025 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Michigan leaderboard.
Top 2025 Firekeepers Casino 400 predictions
For the 2025 Firekeepers Casino 400, we can tell you the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he’s a +1600 longshot in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Michigan odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion likely punched his ticket to the postseason with a win in Texas earlier this season, but he’s still fighting for points and moved up to eighth in the NASCAR standings with a fourth-place run in Nashville last week.
It was Logano’s second top-five finish of the season and now he’ll look to build off that at a track where he’s had a lot of success. He’s a three-time winner at Michigan International Speedway and has finished top 10 in 18 of his 28 career starts there. Ford’s have won nine of the last 10 races in Michigan and Penske Racing has a lot of momentum after putting two of their cars into the top five last week. BetMGM has the best pricing on Logano as the outright winner, but you can also get him at +1500 and bet $5 to get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins with the latest FanDuel promo code.
The model has also revealed a surprising NASCAR prop for Sunday: Carson Hocevar finishes top 10 for a -112 payout. After winning four times and finishing fourth in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series standings in 2023, Hocevar jumped straight to racing full-time in the NASCAR Cup Series in 2024 and won rookie of the year honors thanks to a 21st-place finish in the NASCAR standings and six top-10 finishes.
Now the 22-year-old is showing even more upside in his No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet with a trio of top-10 finishes. He started outside the top 25 in all three of those races and has now climbed from 26th position to finish second twice after doing so in Nashville last weekend. Hocevar is also Michigan native and ran 10th last year in his first Cup start at Michigan International Speedway. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 NASCAR at Michigan picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with Michigan NASCAR odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the NASCAR Firekeepers Casino 400 2025, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Michigan odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full NASCAR Michigan projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 21 winners, and find out.
2025 NASCAR Michigan odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Michigan picks at SportsLine
(odds subject to change)
Kyle Larson +525
Denny Hamlin +650
Ryan Blaney +650
William Byron +800
Tyler Reddick +850
Christopher Bell +1000
Ross Chastain +1400
Joey Logano +1600
Chase Elliott +2000
Chris Buescher +2000
Carson Hocevar +2000
Chase Briscoe +2200
Brad Keselowski +2500
Bubba Wallace +2500
Alex Bowman +2500
Josh Berry +3500
Kyle Busch +3500
Ty Gibbs +5000
Ryan Preece +6000
Austin Cindric +6000
Erik Jones +6000
Daniel Suarez +10000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Michael McDowell +12500
Zane Smith +12500
Austin Dillon +15000
Noah Gragson +15000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +20000
Todd Gilliland +25000
Justin Haley +25000
Riley Herbst +50000
Shane Van Gisbergen +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Ty Dillon +100000
Cody Ware +100000
