UFC 317 predictions — Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, expert picks

The biggest MMA event of the summer is here. UFC 317 has landed in Las Vegas with the promotion touting a pair of title fights atop the marquee event for this year’s International Fight Week. 

The main event will see a new lightweight champion crowned when Ilia Topuria battles Charles Oliveira for the vacant title. Topuria previously held the featherweight title in the promotion, but vacated the belt in pursuit of a second weight class dream. Oliveira was lightweight champion before dropping his belt on the scale. He then lost a vacant title fight in Islam Makhachev in 2022. Makhachev has since vacated the lightweight belt as he plans to move up and challenge for the welterweight crown. 

In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja looks to continue his incredible run of form when he takes on Kai Kara-France with Pantoja’s flyweight title on the line. Pantoja has defended the title three times already as part of a seven fight-win streak. 

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 317 fight card, odds

• Ilia Topuria -420 vs. Charles Oliveira +310, vacant lightweight title
• Alexandre Pantoja (c) -278 vs. Kai Kara-France +210, flyweight title
• Renato Moicano -148 vs. Beneil Dariush +116, lightweights
• Brandon Royval -120 vs. Joshua Van +100, flyweights
• Felipe Lima -180 vs. Payton Talbott +155, bantamweights
• Gregory Rodrigues -186 vs. Jack Hermansson +148, middleweights
• Jose Delgado -167 vs. Hyder Amil +133, featherweights
• Tracy Cortez -240 vs. Viviane Araujo +180, women’s strawweights
• Terrance McKinney -195 vs. Viacheslav Borschev +155, lightweights
• Jhonata Diniz -265 vs. Alvin Hines +200, heavyweights
• Jacobe Smith -1667 vs. Niko Price +950, welterweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 317 picks, predictions

Topuria vs. Oliveira

Campbell: For all of the talk about the danger that the 35-year-old Oliveira still brings as the UFC record holder for most finishes and submissions, he has a fighting style that feels tailored to Topuria’s strengths. Oliveira marches forward with pressure off the jump and doesn’t move his head enough for an elite fighter. Typically, the fact that Oliveira can be hit, lures his opponents into exchanging early at a frantic rate which benefits Oliveira because of how suited he is to land strikes within the chaos he creates. But there’s a difference between luring brawl-happy fighters like Michael Chandler, Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier into doing just that. Topuria, on the other hand, is too patient and too precise. With the best boxing skills UFC has possibly ever seen, expect Topuria to do exactly what he does best in landing clean hooks and spectacularly announcing himself as just the 10th two-division champion in UFC history.

Brookhouse: This fight gives me one of those feelings you can’t shake. There’s a big size difference here, and Oliveira is a dynamic fighter who knows how to pounce on mistakes like almost no one else. Topuria is an outstanding talent and his path to victory lies in how often Oliveira gets hit, but we don’t fully know how Topuria’s power will translate to lightweight. If he can’t connect in ways that hurt Oliveira, Oliveira will be able to press inside and use his deeply underrated wrestling to put Topuria in serious trouble. This feels like much more of a 50/50 fight than the odds indicate.

Pantoja vs. Kara-France

Campbell: The problem for the rest of the flyweight division continues to be that Pantoja has only gotten better as champion and continues to evolve his well-rounded ability to efficiently handle any style or challenge thrown his way. While Kara-France is certainly skilled and dangerous, he also enters the fight having lost two of his last three. KKF is getting the title shot mostly because Pantoja entered 2024 with a 9-0 record against fighters in the top 10 at 125 pounds but he has a history of being stopped by elites when he steps up (Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval). Kara-France also lost a two-round decision to Pantoja in their exhibition match on “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2016. If the old theory is true that fighters become 30% better after becoming champion, the 35-year-old Pantoja is proving that with each title defense. 

Brookhouse: Pantoja is so good at positional control and passing to advantageous positions on the ground that Kara-France would need to keep nearly the entire fight on the feet to avoid the area that Pantoja dominates. Kara-France has good takedown defense but I believe Pantoja’s takedown game is good enough to get the fight to the ground. Pantoja is also good enough on the feet that he should be able to not get completely dominated by Kara-France’s striking. It looks like another successful defense for the champ.

Mahjouri: Pantoja is getting better in each fight. That’s a scary proposition for the division. A relentless grappler with an iron chin, Pantoja made smart defensive decisions against striker Kai Asakura. Rounding out his defensive skills benefits him against Kara-France, arguably the division’s hardest hitter. Kara-France can stop anyone, but he isn’t impervious to damage. How well Kara-France’s 88% takedown defense holds up is another major factor. The challenger can trigger an upset, no doubt, but I suspect Pantoja’s pace will slowly break Kara-France.

Moicano vs. Dariush

Campbell: Despite the recent success from Moicano to upset his way into becoming a legitimate title challenger in recent years, there isn’t a whole lot separating him from Dariush in this crossroads matchup to decide who is coming and going at 155 pounds. Dariush is the more skilled and experienced fighter but must prove at 36 that he can put a pair of stoppage losses against elite opposition in his last two fights behind him. The good news for Dariush is that his grappling skills and physicality should cancel out the submission threat of the 35-year-old Moicano, who lost a one-sided title shot last time out against Islam Makhachev that he accepted on extremely short notice. Expect this to be a close striking battle over 15 rounds that could go either way. It’s just that Dariush has more motivation to avoid a costly defeat.  

Brookhouse: This is a very hard fight to call. Dariush has gotten trucked in his two most recent fights while Moicano had a ton of momentum until a late switch into a title shot against Islam Makhachev. Unsurprisingly, Moicano wasn’t able to pick up the belt that night, but there’s no shame in losing to Makhachev. Still, this fight feels like it should come down to which man is the better all-around fighter, and that man is Dariush.

Who wins UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.