Here’s what’s so frustrating about Max Meyer: You can’t really fake a 14-strikeout game.
You can fake a good start. Bad pitchers have good starts all of the time. Bad pitchers have good months fairly regularly. Bad pitchers can even fake their way through entire seasons where they dodge every landmine and end up with a sparkling ERA over 30-something starts. It happens almost every year!
What you almost never see is a bad pitcher having a 14-strikeout game. Over the past five seasons, there are basically two candidates out of 28 starts with at least 14 strikeouts: Lance Lynn in 2023 and Triston McKenzie in 2022. McKenzie was really good in 2022 before injuries derailed his career, so it really only leaves Lynn, who had a 16-strikeout effort in June of 2023 before going on to post a 5.07 ERA the rest of the way. 27 out of 28 is a hit rate you don’t see often.
Meyer struck out 14 Reds on April 21 to lower his season ERA to 2.10. He had 41 strikeouts to seven walks in 30 innings to open the season after that start, and he’s now had one quality start in six chances since. Over those six starts, he has a 5.29 ERA after giving up four earned runs over 3.1 innings of work Tuesday – with zero strikeouts! That’s the second time he’s had a zero-strikeout start since that 14-strikeout showing, and he has just 22 strikeouts to 12 walks in 30.2 innings over his past six starts.
So, I guess Meyer is joining Lynn on that short list?
It’s too soon to say that definitively, of course, but it sure feels like that’s the direction we’re heading in. And the biggest problem is that Meyer’s slider has gone from looking one of the best pitches in baseball to looking like one of the worst lately. In April, he had a 49.6% whiff rate and .217 expected wOBA on the slider, which is even more impressive when you realize he was throwing the pitch 40.4% of the time.
His usage of that pitch has dropped to 27.8% in May, and we can hardly argue he should be throwing it more. His whiff rate is down to 30% with the pitch, and he was allowing a .460 expected wOBA with his slider in May before giving up five balls in play with an average exit velocity of 98.2 mph.
The problem is, Meyer doesn’t really have much to fall back on. His changeup has been a solid enough pitch, but it’s still clearly more of a third option, and his new sweeper hasn’t been good at all. Meyer is still throwing harder than last season, but his four-seamer remains a poor swing-and-miss pitch while also getting clobbered. There might be some tweaks he could make – more changeups and sinkers, primarily – but ultimately, if the slider isn’t a difference maker, Meyer just probably won’t be a good pitcher, full-stop.
I’m not ready to make that declaration quite yet, but I can’t say I have a ton of faith. Looking at the most-added pitchers on CBS Fantasy leagues right now who are available in more than half of leagues, I don’t think I’d drop Meyers for Noah Cameron, Randy Vasquez, Zack Littell, or Miles Mikolas, but I might do it for Slade Cecconi – and if Will Warren or Ryan Weathers are available in any leagues where I have Meyers, I would certainly pull the trigger on that.
But for the most part, I think I just want to wait on Meyers. I’m running out of patience, but if I’m going to drop him, I really want to be sure that guy from April isn’t coming back. It looks unlikely, but hey, Meyer’s breakout looked unlikely back in March, too.
Here’s what else you need to know about from Tuesday’s action around MLB:
Wednesday’s top waiver-wire targets
Robert Garcia, RP, Rangers (11%) – The Rangers continue to try things out in the ninth inning, and Garcia has gotten the last two saves as they try to find the right answer. He struck out two Tuesday against the Blue Jays, and he’s having another solid season, with a 2.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 21 strikeouts in 23 innings. He’s not a dominant reliever, necessarily, and the fact that he’s a lefty probably works against his chances of taking this job and running with it. But if you’re desperate for saves, he’s worth an add to see if they stick with him.
Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (69%) – Correa was showing signs of life before a concussion landed him on the IL a couple of weeks ago, and that’s always scary – I’ve seen plenty of seasons derailed by concussions. But Correa appears to have avoided that, returning after the minimum amount of time from the concussion protocol and going 6 for 12 with a double and two homers in five games since his return. Correa is now hitting .316/.339/.491 since the start of May, so hopefully he’s put that slow start behind him for good.
Miguel Vargas, 3B, White Sox (43%) – Vargas probably needs to be much more widely rostered than he is at this point. He went 2 for 5 with a homer and three RBI Tuesday and is now hitting .273 with seven homers and a .932 OPS since the start of May. Yeah, the rest of his MLB career suggests this is a fluke, but Vargas always produced in the minors, so maybe he just needed some time to figure things out in the majors. Skepticism is reasonable, but he’s taken a step forward in terms of his plate discipline so far and he’s sporting above-average quality of contact metrics these days as well. His .374 xwOBA over his past 100 days shows there’s some skill underlying this breakout, at least.
Cade Horton, SP, Cubs (54%) – Horton hasn’t looked dominant in his first taste of the majors, but he’s shown some solid skills in the early going. Tuesday’s start against the Rockies was his first quality start in four tries, and he’s now down to a 3.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP so far. The strikeouts have been a bit disappointing with just 16 in 20.1 innings, but his control has been fine, and he has flashed swing-and-miss upside with each of his three secondary pitches, so there’s reason for hope there. I’m not dropping Meyer for Horton, but I do think he’s worth adding in most 12-team or deeper leagues, especially ahead of what looks like a two-start week next week against the Nationals and Tigers.
